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What BFCM 2025 data says about discount size, and simple maths to protect your profit.
Every Black Friday, stores feel pressure to cut prices deeper. But a bigger discount does not always bring more sales, and it always costs more profit. Our data from BFCM 2025 and some simple maths point to the same answer: for bundles, 10% to 20% off is usually enough, and 25% should be your limit.
Key takeaways
- Bundles under 25% off earned about 1.5x more per bundle than bundles at 25% or more.
- Deeper discounts did not make orders bigger.
- At 30% off, you need twice the sales to earn the same profit.
- Make offers feel bigger with structure: sets, tiers and free gifts.
What the data says about discount size
We compared bundles with a percentage discount over BFCM weekend 2025. Bundles discounted by less than 25% earned about 1.5x more per bundle than bundles discounted by 25% or more.
The order value did not rise with the discount either. Shoppers did not buy bigger bundles because the cut was deeper. The structure of the offer mattered more than the size of the discount.
The profit maths every store should know
Take a candle that sells for $40 and costs $16 to make and ship. You keep $24 per sale. Every dollar of discount comes out of that $24.
How many more sales you need after a discount:
- None: Profit left per item: $24; Sales needed to earn the same profit: 1x
- 10%: Profit left per item: $20; Sales needed to earn the same profit: 1.2x
- 20%: Profit left per item: $16; Sales needed to earn the same profit: 1.5x
- 25%: Profit left per item: $14; Sales needed to earn the same profit: 1.7x
- 30%: Profit left per item: $12; Sales needed to earn the same profit: 2x
- 40%: Profit left per item: $8; Sales needed to earn the same profit: 3x
- 50%: Profit left per item: $4; Sales needed to earn the same profit: 6x
At 20% off, you need 1.5x the sales to earn the same profit. At 30%, you need 2x. At 50%, you need 6x. Few stores get that kind of lift, even on Black Friday.
Why bundles protect your margin
A bundle gives a discount on a bigger order. The discount per item is smaller, and the profit per order is larger.
Profit per order: discount vs. bundle:
- 1 candle at full price: Order value: $40; Profit per order: $24
- 1 candle at 30% off: Order value: $28; Profit per order: $12
- 3 candles as a set, 20% off: Order value: $96; Profit per order: $48
- Buy 2, get a $16 tin free: Order value: $80; Profit per order: $42
A 30% single-item discount leaves $12 of profit per order. A three-candle set at 20% off leaves $48. The shopper still sees a clear saving, and you earn four times as much from the order.
A simple discount plan for Black Friday
- Pick one number for bundles. Choose 15% or 20% and use it across your bundles. One clear number is easier to understand and to promote.
- Set a hard limit. Do not go above 25% on bundles. In our data, that is where results got worse.
- Add value instead of cutting more. If you want a bigger offer, add a free gift or a better price on the third item. Choose a lower-cost gift so the real discount stays small.
- Test in October. Run an A/B test of 15% against 20% in October, while traffic is normal. Go into Black Friday with the winner.
- Keep it for the whole season. Run the same offer from November 11 to December 7. Changing discounts mid-season confuses shoppers.
Make the offer feel bigger without a deeper cut
Quantity tiers let the shopper choose how big their saving is. The biggest discount only applies to the biggest order.
What to watch during Black Friday
- Profit per order, not just revenue. A busy weekend can still lose money.
- Average order value. If it drops, your discount may be too deep on single items.
- Share of orders with a bundle. In MBC Bundles stores, it rose from 14% to 22% over BFCM weekend.
Want help building your Black Friday bundles?
Our team will look at your products and set up your BFCM offers with you. Open MBC Bundles and start a live chat, or email support@mbc-bundles.com.
Methodology and sources
MBC Bundles data: bundle-attributed orders across MBC Bundles stores, converted to USD at the time of order. BFCM weekend = November 28 to December 1, 2025. Where we compare types of stores or bundles, we exclude the three largest stores so that no single store skews the result, or we use the median. Results vary by catalogue, traffic and offer. Discount comparison uses the discount level set on each bundle.
